Thread: Was there some sudden change to the lottery chances on Eldar?

Ever since the migration, I have loved the lotteries and the generous odd of winning them. The stats have been lost now, but I's guess I averaged or two wins per day between my eight characters, solidly for months.

But something seems to have happened: I have only won two lotteries in the past 17 days. Here are the number of wins for the past month or so:



Anybody else notice this?

Please note I am not complaining - any wins are gratefully received. I also know how random numbers work (e.g., you can *sometimes* get 100 tails on 100 flips of a fair coin). And I also know the *number* of lotteries has gone down from the high levels of the anniversary festival. Nevertheless, I'm just trying to determine if there has been a change in lottery probabilities, and if so, whether this is WAI.

I won a lot when lotteries were first available for EU players. I think maybe not everyone knew about them at first, or people took a while to get into the habit of entering regularly, so less people entered and the odds were better.

Also, I have a level 58 which wins a lot more of his lotteries than my 75 does. I guess there are a lot more characters at 75 than 58 so the level 58 has less competition and better odds.

All speculation, but I've noticed I've been winning a lot less the last few months too.

I win a lot less since the EU migration, I took it to mean there are more entries and less chance to win. I could be wrong tho

Thanks to you both for your replies, and for not dismissing me out of hand, but what I have noticed is a *sudden* drop. For 9 months or more, I have had lottery win rates similar to what you see in the beginning of the chart I was finally able to add, above. OK, so not 8 wins/day usually, but several. For months. Reliably. But *suddenly*, a statistically very significant drop. Partially explained, perhaps, by a decrease of lotteries, but that is unlikely to be the whole story. I wonder if others on Eldar (or elsewhere?) would produce similar charts?

This isn't limited to Eldar. I haven't won a lottery on any character on any server (I have them on Elendilmir, Landroval, and Crickhollow) since April 30. It could be bad luck, lowered number of winners, or a bug. Also remember that there were a LOT of lotteries in April during the anniversary festival, so that could skew your perception of expected winnings.

I haven't won a lottery in 14 days on any of my 5 toons, despite entering all of them and checking a few times throughout every day to see if there are any special lotteries. Before the Anniversary Festival lottery bonanza started, I was winning several per week. During the Festival I was winning one or two a day. Since May 9th, nothing. My toons are L24, L32, L32, L35, and L69. I definitely won more on the lower level toons than I did on the L69, but geez...this dry spell...

My last win was right before the Anniversary Fest ended... May 5. Now I only started playing the lottery part the beginning of April, but all my wins were anniversary related. But I also see that there have been less lotteries since then, too, so it could be just bad luck! Same reason I didn't get a Dusk-Watch Steed from the envelopes!

off topic but, if you flip a coin 100 times and get heads every time your coin is broken. I can say without hesitation that 100 consecutive flips of a real coin have NEVER come up all heads or all tails in the history of all coin flips.

During festivals your odds of winning a lottery are dramatically improved because the sheer volume of lotteries increases. There were times during the anniversary where there were literally 25 lotteries running at a time, compared to the typical 6 or 7. With more to enter, there are more chances to win. And we do very much skew festival themed lotteries to be on the somewhat more than generous side in terms of winners.

That said, random is random and it lookse like your lucky streak has tapered off. On the plus side, this weekend we'll be launching Spring Festival lotteries so you can probably expect some of that luck to come back.

It could also mean your server is growing, or becoming more aware of the lotteries. There are a set number of winners, regardless of server size, which is great for smaller servers or servers with new players possibly not acquainted with the lottery system.

The large number of lotteries during the anniversary festival may have gotten more people joining, in addition to making you feel extra lucky by having 25 lotteries a day (which probably had more winners than your everyday lottery as well).

Originally Posted by Sapience

During festivals your odds of winning a lottery are dramatically improved because the sheer volume of lotteries increases. There were times during the anniversary where there were literally 25 lotteries running at a time, compared to the typical 6 or 7. With more to enter, there are more chances to win. And we do very much skew festival themed lotteries to be on the somewhat more than generous side in terms of winners.

That said, random is random and it lookse like your lucky streak has tapered off. On the plus side, this weekend we'll be launching Spring Festival lotteries so you can probably expect some of that luck to come back.

What about luck for the people who don't do the festivals, is there luck going to change any for the other other lotteries or is it just for the people who do festivals ?.

Originally Posted by Khallan1706

What about luck for the people who don't do the festivals, is there luck going to change any for the other other lotteries or is it just for the people who do festivals ?.

I am not 100% sure what you are asking, but the lottery system is in no way tied to any in-game system except the mail system for delivery and every entry has an equal chance of winning.