Thread: MMOs and declining populations

Originally Posted by Escander

Although subscriptions alone arent the full picture anymore, its interesting to see the data from this site. It looks like lotro is back to about 250K subscriptions.

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png

That's active accounts for Lotro on the graph, not subscriptions. What's interesting is that the active accounts number is almost back to before F2P was introduced, and then everyone was paying or a sub ( or was a lifer ). How many of the current active accounts play for free? Probably a large proportion. Not good for Turbine. Assuming the figures have any validity....

Originally Posted by monteeburns

That's active accounts for Lotro on the graph, not subscriptions. What's interesting is that the active accounts number is almost back to before F2P was introduced, and then everyone was paying or a sub ( or was a lifer ). How many of the current active accounts play for free? Probably a large proportion. Not good for Turbine. Assuming the figures have any validity....

One whale pays for many minnows.

F2P is the business of catching whales. How many minnows you catch while you catch the whales is irrelevant. You don't want the minnows, not really, but what attracts the whales also attracts the minnows ... and driving the minnows off also drives off the whales. Whales seem to like having minnows around. Whales are very odd creatures, but, well, you want the whales to stay ... so you do what the whales want.

Its' all a question of how big, of how little, of a fish you are. Gotta love capitalism.

:grins:

Well they are going to have to do something to change the current trend of the graph, otherwise there won't be any whales or any minnows left, just rotting fish on a dry ocean bed ;D

I'm not an expert on this stuff so I can't add a whole lot to this thread that may or may not have already been pointed out in another response, but my guess is that all mmo's probably all have the same problem. After a new x-pack or update has run its course for some time people get a little bored (as people will do no matter what) and find other games that will entertain them until the creators of the mmo come out with something that will draw everyone's interest back. It seems to be a cycle of some sort with most games imo.

Originally Posted by Khafar

Bzzzt. Sure, it might be a 5-10% hit for a short time, but half or more of those people will come back to the game they're more invested in. The new game often has problems that aren't apparent before it launches - or even in the first days and weeks. People get tired of the new game and bail.

You are right...I invested more time in GW1 than in LoTRO. In fact, I'm actually back in GW1, to finish some achievements that will carry over to GW2. And I know there are many more like me. When content dried up in GW1, I moved to LoTRO. Now I'm going back

@ JustEscape22

Nice Michel Jackson Avatar of yours.
Totaly creeps me out.

Originally Posted by Nymphonic

I have a totally Off Topic question for you. I plan on getting a new rig soon and was just wondering is 12 gigs of ram is over kill for MMOs and Skyrim.

Check out "Digital Storm" computers. I bought an Alienware 4 years ago and recently upgraded my GPU and memory, but I still love my rig. It appears that Digital Storm is very competitive price-wise.

I am no expert, but my checklist of importance is:

CPU (probably can't upgrade later, so make sure it is top-of-the-line now)
GPU (expensive and probably don't want to upgrade later, so make sure it is top-of-the-line now).
RAM (can always add more later b/c it is inexpensive). 8GB should be sufficient, but can never have too much.
Make sure you are getting 64-bit Windows also. As someone stated earlier, 32-bit only uses 4GB RAM.

Good luck!

Originally Posted by trcanberra

Listening to the player base has been a disaster in many MMOs - the designers have a vision and folks will either like it or not - they get paid to do this and I would hate to see a game designed by us, the mob.

Truer words, NEVER posted.

+10000 rep.

Originally Posted by Livejazz

Truer words, NEVER posted.

+10000 rep.

Agreed 100%. Keyboard commandos FTL.

Not so sure declining populations is such a major concern as it used to be. There's more choice in the MMO market than ever before and this should be commended. It's one reason why I doubt any future MMO will have the monopoly that WoW did. However, we should not perceive this as a failure on any future MMO's part imo. Of course, every MMO developer will want as much of a monopoly as possible but I'm sure all will have contingency plans for when sub figures decline etc. We MMO gamers are a fickle bunch and the developers know this

I think what keeps LOTRO's population relatively stable is the fact that it's based off of Middle-Earth, something that a large part of the population has familiarity with, and many have an emotional connection to of some kind. I remember when I told my friend, a diehard LotR fan that played WoW for many years about LOTRO, and she flipped and immediately made a LOTRO account. When I asked her why she left her guild, friends, and everything in WoW behind, she replied "this is the only chance I'll have to get a glimpse of Middle-Earth, I want to see all of it."

Made total sense to me.

Originally Posted by AltitudeAvalanche

I think what keeps LOTRO's population relatively stable is the fact that it's based off of Middle-Earth, something that a large part of the population has familiarity with, and many have an emotional connection to of some kind. I remember when I told my friend, a diehard LotR fan that played WoW for many years about LOTRO, and she flipped and immediately made a LOTRO account. When I asked her why she left her guild, friends, and everything in WoW behind, she replied "this is the only chance I'll have to get a glimpse of Middle-Earth, I want to see all of it."

Made total sense to me.

Oh without a doubt. Middle Earth is why I put up with sub standard forums, lag spikes, and a 2 year span without an expansion because of introducing F2P.

One thing that Turbine has done consistently is nail that "Middle Earth" feeling down to a T. Even in places like Forochel and Enedwaith that were briefly mentioned in the books feel like Middle Earth.

I too, have an emotional connection to this game.

Originally Posted by monteeburns

That's active accounts for Lotro on the graph, not subscriptions. What's interesting is that the active accounts number is almost back to before F2P was introduced, and then everyone was paying or a sub ( or was a lifer ). How many of the current active accounts play for free? Probably a large proportion. Not good for Turbine. Assuming the figures have any validity....

Ahhh, thanks. I just noticed the legend in the graph says "AA" for active accounts on LOTR. Wonder where this info comes from? I checked out the annual report for Warner Brothers (who own Turbine), and i dont see any stats like this.

I wouldn't worry about LOTRO's population. There are many players who are still interested in playing, and exploring Tolkien's world. Plus, there are people out there who do rotate and play multiple mmos. I know I get into moods where I feel like playing Age of Conan for a couple of hours, then when I am in a Lord of the Rings type of mood I play LOTRO. I like LOTRO, and I love how I can explore places, such as The Shire, Rivendell, Bree, even Rohan. I like visiting all those well known places from the books, and I like how there is a strong roleplaying community in this game. I also like the community of LOTRO, and how it is mature, and considerate.