My question is, is there any interdependance between charcter race and the type of horse you may get?
All my dwarf and elf chars got the Lossoth Steed, two of my human chars got the Dusk Watch Steed. With my hobbit minstrel I haven't started the quest yet.
My elf got the Steed of the Dusk-watch, so looks like there's no correlation.
Wait. Toast emote is tradeable? One of my toons got it twice, but it's not in my inventory. How do I find it to trade it to one of my alts?
It IS tradeable, but only if it bugs and does not get used instantly (use on aquire).
Then you can give it to someone else.
Most likely, this person will read it instantly.
My question is, is there any interdependance between charcter race and the type of horse you may get?
All my dwarf and elf chars got the Lossoth Steed, two of my human chars got the Dusk Watch Steed. With my hobbit minstrel I haven't started the quest yet.
Yes, there's a racial difference:
Any race can get the Lossoth Steed.
When you're notified that you get Steed of the Dusk-watch,
- if you're human or elf, you get a Steed of the Dusk-watch in your stable.
- if you're dwarf or hobbit, you get a Warden's Steed in your stable.
The Steed of the Dusk-watch looks just like the Warden's Steed, except that it's too big for reasonably-sized characters. And of course the usual kink near the tip of the tail.
My main a hobbit got the Dusk Watch Steed. I'm still trying for the Lossoth one I really want it for my Dwarf. No luck yet. I think it's totally random and wish you much luck.
My characters must ALL be unlucky then. Not a single one has gotten even one of the mounts. The sad and frustrating thing for me is I ONLY wanted the Lossoth steed on my main. That's it, nothing else. And I get nothing. Yet I see virtually everyone around me riding them all over. And people saying they've gotten them multiple times.
My characters must ALL be unlucky then. Not a single one has gotten even one of the mounts. The sad and frustrating thing for me is I ONLY wanted the Lossoth steed on my main. That's it, nothing else. And I get nothing. Yet I see virtually everyone around me riding them all over. And people saying they've gotten them multiple times.
RNG is interesting thing. I have been doing this quest with my 9 characters daily, ever since the festival opened. I am tracking which one of the "big" rewards each character has received, and there should be three of them: Lossoth Steed, Toast-emote and Steed of the Dusk-watch/Warden's Steed. So far, 2 characters have got all three rewards, almost everyone else has got one or two out of three, but my loremaster has not got anything yet And, of course some characters have got the same horse twice, and I have had to delete the extra one. I don't know if I won emote twice, maybe that would stay in my inventory then so I could send it to one of my characters?
Wish I had learned earlier that steeds drop from the envelopes. Or that I wasn't the honest type refusing to exploit the quest like dozens of other people standing around one letter for hours.
Could be - or perhaps it could be like the scenario somebody (Yula? Sapience?) retailed recently about how in another MMO there was a meme about characters that randomly seemed to get too much aggro. It eventually turned out that there was indeed a defect in the algorithm that had to do with the database ID of the character, and sure enough it did result in too much aggro for the unlucky few.
That was in Asheron's Call, Turbine's first MMORPG back in 1999. There was a player called Wi who kept complaining that the Lugians in the Lugian Citadel were picking on him. The developers could find nothing wrong with the code and thought he must be imagining it. Many years later, they found a bug in the code that meant you were more likely to take aggro if you had a low database ID, which was the case for Wi. So the developers named the bug the Wi Flag after poor old Wi. I'm pretty sure I remember that both Sapience and Yula were developers on Asheron's Call. It was my first MMORPG and a great game.
Wish I had learned earlier that steeds drop from the envelopes. Or that I wasn't the honest type refusing to exploit the quest like dozens of other people standing around one letter for hours.
I'm glad I'm the honest type and refuse to exploit, but it has made trying to get the steed distinctly distasteful when you get asked to exploit every time you try for it, and you come up empty again and again, and then people gloat about selling the toast emote for ridiculous amounts on the AH.
I was actually really lucky with the rewards this year. I've only done the "Lost Invitation" quest twice now. The first time I got nothing but a couple of Anniversary Tokens. The second time I did it though I got 2 Anniversary Tokens, the Toast Emote, and the Steed of the Dusk Watch (whatever it's called). I really like the Steed I got actually. I've been using the one I got from ordering RoI but I immediately switched for this one. It's quicker then the RoI too (which is only 62% I believe) which is a bonus. The Toast emote is rather funny too.
Quests like this are always more favourable to people who have multiple alts.
If you want more chances of winning one, then make a few more alts and at least one should get it.
Im glad my dwarf got the toast emote. A match made in heaven.
I have ran this quest once every a day every day on 7 chars and no horses.. I did get the toast emote Saturday.. of course on a char I don't play very often, but it's something.. you would think I'd get a horse to drop after all those envelopes...
I'm glad I'm the honest type and refuse to exploit, but it has made trying to get the steed distinctly distasteful when you get asked to exploit every time you try for it, and you come up empty again and again, and then people gloat about selling the toast emote for ridiculous amounts on the AH.
Interesting thing... if a solo person picks up the envelopes, they do actually disappear and have to respawn like they are supposed to. Extra little incentive when running the envelopes
I got a horse after about 16-20 envelopes, which is nice because I'm only premium, and I don't really want to fork over money for a horse from the store, but these ones you can win are better than the ones you just buy with silver. I LOVE THE ANNIVERSARY!!!
After thinking the Luck gods had forgotten all about me, I got both horses in one set of 6 envelopes....
Apart from that it has been mostly low level, non-riding, bank alts..lol.
I haven't got an envelope horse for any of my highest level characters (four characters from 65-75). I did get one horse for captain (57). Here comes the irony, of course: two of the classes I probably will never play, hmm, in considerable amounts (hunter and champion) have both got both envelope horses (levels 39 and 31, or something in those lines). One of them has even got two Dusk-Watch steeds.
It doesn't shake me much, though. The mounts are nice, but I'm not going to spend any store points on them, or excessively grind and obsess over this quest. It's just a fun regular something to do in game when there's nothing better to do at the given moment
Oh, and of course, the amount of exploits seemingly going unnoticed has belitteled the value of everything received from the envelope quest, at least in my eyes.
So far, I've gotten the "toast" emote, which is awesome, and the Lossoth horse. I've been doing the quest every day hoping for the Duskwatch mount, but so far I haven't gotten it. I doubt I will, honestly. And no, I am so not spending TP on the gamble.
Not for something that will most likely be sold in the LOTRO Store in another month, anyway.
after watching 6 different people using the exploit today I'm done with this quest...
I got 1 horse one of my alt's...
too many cheaters...
I'm not done -- not until my main gets a fast and strong flagless pony!
I've made the cheaters part of my mini-game. For each of my characters running through it, I interfere with the exploit as my first and last act, and in the middle go about my regular business of collecting envelopes. I've given up reporting the offenders because there are so many of them, but I'm keeping track of the most organizedly offending kinships so I'll know not to accept PUGs with them.
It is discouraging, though -- when playing my fortunate alts I still feel funny about riding one of the ponies because of how others are likely to perceive them. But they're such nice breeds that I'll get over that in a few weeks.
I truly wish they would make the steeds account bound instead of character bound.
I've gotten two of the same steeds on two different characters and have stuffed them in my vaults in case Turbine ever decides to allow us share with our other characters, once we've already gotten it.
I haven't got an envelope horse for any of my highest level characters (four characters from 65-75).
I must say, complaining in forums seems to work miracles. During this morning's session, I pulled Lossoth steed for my main (75), Lossoth steed for warden (65) and Dusk-Watch steed for minstrel (65). (Also GT emote for a hobbit character I really wanted it for - must be my lucky day.) So I won't be complaining anymore. Or wait...
I've gotten something for 8 of my toons (mostly the toast emote), but my two higher level toons haven't found a thing! However, I know that's better than some people's results, so I shouldn't complain.
I'm just here to complain about not getting anything (horses and emote) from the mails after a lot of tries, so I might have the luck Rivvi had, hope it works:P
Pulling my hairs out over this. Only thing I get are Invitations. And some unwanted invitations. Oh and one (1) anniversary token...
But I'll keep trying. And trying. And trying...
Damn you, true random drop! Damn you to a random circle of hell!
I think there is random, then there is computers. I have had the same drop on all toons as you, yet have seen people winning 7 horses. Yes, I know how random works, but I also worked for the Bureau of Statistics here for some years, and the distrubution I am seeing in my kin suggests biased results rather than random.
I think there is random, then there is computers. I have had the same drop on all toons as you, yet have seen people winning 7 horses. Yes, I know how random works, but I also worked for the Bureau of Statistics here for some years, and the distrubution I am seeing in my kin suggests biased results rather than random.
Fact is that a computer CANNOT be truly random. A program is written that factors into a formula one or more seemingly random numbers, usually based on date or time. The calculation SEEMS to be random, but it has the tendency to return strings of results, like 50 losses to one person, and 20 straight wins to another. The output does not fit random probability.
The problem is, it is not possible to create true randomness in a computer. What they use is the best we can do.
Default Character Sig deleted due to crafting stats being broken. Maybe one day they will let us use our own images.
Fact is that a computer CANNOT be truly random. A program is written that factors into a formula one or more seemingly random numbers, usually based on date or time. The calculation SEEMS to be random, but it has the tendency to return strings of results, like 50 losses to one person, and 20 straight wins to another. The output does not fit random probability.
The problem is, it is not possible to create true randomness in a computer. What they use is the best we can do.
Your premise is partly right (it's not possible to create true randomness from a deterministic algorithm with no source of apparent true randomness such as a hardware add-on that produces and measures individual radioactive decay events), but the conclusion isn't. In particular, strong encryption and hashing algorithms such as AES (called Rijndael when it was competing for the AES title) were tested exhaustively to see whether their output was distinguishable from random. Candidates with observable biases were eliminated. It's quite possible that the devs could use an efficient implementation of AES or another strong crypto algorithm to generate an output stream that couldn't be distinguished from random by observers who can't see its state and input variables.
I have no idea what LotRO uses for its PRNG, nor whether it's any good. I once did a thousand /rolls with and without Erebrandir's Horseshoe equipped, but that's still a small sample. For the record, neither run appeared different from random on a statistical test; in particular, the Horseshoe didn't load the dice.
The other false implication of the conclusion is that a truly random stream wouldn't produce runs of bad or good luck. This is not correct. Consider the simplest chance of binary choices: I'm crafting with a 50% crit rate, but I miss twice in a row. Annoying, right? But you would expect that to happen one out of four times. OK, I hear you cry - how about last night when I missed *five* times in a row at 50%? OK, that would be expected to happen once every 32 times. Hard luck. I sometimes get a good run in crafting also, but I typically just whinge in chat when I lose, and forget the good ones pretty quickly. I agree that the 50 losses or 100 wins in a row (assuming 50% again) you cite above is beyond belief... and without documentation I'd be inclined to write it down to measurement error.
I've run this quest a lot of times now, and some of my characters have been luckier than others. I've seen some annoying patterns, such as that higher-level characters seem to be getting more luck than lower-level ones without riding skill, but that could still be random chance. I'd need a lot more data than I'm likely to be able to collect to demonstrate unequivocally whether it is or is not credible, though.
I only have so many horses yet, because I buy postman badges in the shop. Someone has to give his money to keep this game alive :-)
PS: Another question...is it possible to get both horses with one char or are there already chars who got both on one char? It seems for me that if you win one horse maybe the chance to win the other is blocked. I got the Lossoth Steed three times on my main char but no Dusk Watch one...same with other chars. I have no problem to spend points on badges, but only if there is really a chance to get a second horse.
Three runs since the downtime, and two ponies! Woohoo! Both supporting characters, ofc -- my protagonists on Riddermark and Landroval are still shut out. One was a dupe... too bad they aren't B2A! Shame to send the spares off to the pet food factory.
{I've run this quest a lot of times now, and some of my characters have been luckier than others. I've seen some annoying patterns, such as that higher-level characters seem to be getting more luck than lower-level ones without riding skill, but that could still be random chance. I'd need a lot more data than I'm likely to be able to collect to demonstrate unequivocally whether it is or is not credible, though.}
My stats appear to demonstrate the exact opposite trend with my most casual alts being the winners of all 3 possible prizes and my main toons pulling only one after trying every day. I do believe the ink blot is really an ink blot and the patterns we are seeing are our over active imaginations. Not a surprising tendency for folks who spend large blocks of time slaying polygonal wights.
{I've run this quest a lot of times now, and some of my characters have been luckier than others. I've seen some annoying patterns, such as that higher-level characters seem to be getting more luck than lower-level ones without riding skill, but that could still be random chance. I'd need a lot more data than I'm likely to be able to collect to demonstrate unequivocally whether it is or is not credible, though.}
My stats appear to demonstrate the exact opposite trend with my most casual alts being the winners of all 3 possible prizes and my main toons pulling only one after trying every day. I do believe the ink blot is really an ink blot and the patterns we are seeing are our over active imaginations. Not a surprising tendency for folks who spend large blocks of time slaying polygonal wights.
I was astonished to see the bit you quoted in {} above, and then appalled to see that they were my words. I got the sense reversed - sorry! My results match yours.
My low-level characters have far better luck than my high-level ones. Of the 32 characters I've had running this quest (six invitations at a time, 497 quests completed so far), only eight have been shut out on ponies completely, and seven of these are my highest character on that server.
I'm guessing that this event ends today and I will not be able to loot tomorrow. That said, I've had 7 - 10 toons that have looted everyday. Never missing a day from first day until today.
I've won 12 unique mounts (3 additional that were already earned and therefore bound trash).
I've won 12 Toast emotes (3 of which were already earned and therefore disappeared immediately).
While I'm pretty happy with that, I'll simply note the following:
I did have 1 toon that never won anything. (remember, never missed a single day).
ALL of my toons went 7 consecutive days without winning anything. Seven toons * 7 days equals 49 attempts. 49 attempts * 6 festival invitations = 294 consecutive invitations without a win.
I stopped looting on a toon when they won all 3 rare items, so I had 3/10 toons accomplish that.
I did not spend any TP on this event.
The item I wanted the most (/Toast) was earned on 9/10 toons (the only loser, my second most played toon).
As for alts vs. main:
My main (75)won all 3 items.
The other two toons that won all 3 items are levels 66 and 64.
My one toon that did not win anything was level 75.
2 other level 75s won both a mount and the emote.
2 level 20's wont both a mount and an emote.
Honestly, I can't say that I saw any discrimination based on play time or toon level.
My summary is that the RNG works as it always has... but I'm convinced it doesn't works as it should. I consistently see it get "stuck" were some win lots and others lose lots until it resets. I've witnessed this back in the days of early Moria and see it quite regularly. Some will argue, but I continue to see constant strings of both wins and losses. In this specific event, I'd win 3 rare items a day every day for a week. Then win 0 items a day every day for a week. While the average is one that an RNG supports, the feast/famine is not. An RNG isn't supposed to average out... its supposed to be random. I don't think this issue is game breaking, but its frustrating as there are times when you get a pretty good idea that you don't have a shot at winning. YMMV, but I see the feast/famine play out for 4+ years now and I've just come to expect it (as is witnessed in this thread with many folks not winning much of anything at all).
Last edited by hucklebarry; May 09 2012 at 09:32 AM.
My summary is that the RNG works as it always has... but I'm convinced it doesn't works as it should. I consistently see it get "stuck" were some win lots and others lose lots until it resets. I've witnessed this back in the days of early Moria and see it quite regularly. Some will argue, but I continue to see constant strings of both wins and losses. In this specific event, I'd win 3 rare items a day every day for a week. Then win 0 items a day every day for a week. While the average is one that an RNG supports, the feast/famine is not. An RNG isn't supposed to average out... its supposed to be random. I don't think this issue is game breaking, but its frustrating as there are times when you get a pretty good idea that you don't have a shot at winning. YMMV, but I see the feast/famine play out for 4+ years now and I've just come to expect it (as is witnessed in this thread with many folks not winning much of anything at all).
On the contrary, we humans are very poor at recognising sequences of random numbers (this was first documented by Hans Reichenbach in 1934). The probability of a repeating sub-sequence in a random sequence is much, much higher than you would think. Apple had to change the code that shuffles songs on the iPod because people were complaining that it couldn't be random because it repeated songs too often. In the words of Steve Jobs, they had to make the feature "less random to make it feel more random". The behaviour you're describing is exactly what should be expected if the pseudo-random generator used by LOTRO is working as intended.
I'm kinda disappointed in this, honestly. I ran the invitations every day on all 5 of my toons for the duration of the festival. In total I've gotten the /toast on two different toons (neither of them either of my two primary toons) and I've gotten one Lossoth and one Dusk Watch steed (neither on my two primary toons). Crazy.
I think I may have made my final envelope runs, unless there's a shot after the normal quest reset time tonight before it gets turned off, so here are my (probable) final stats:
509 quests across 32 characters, all 6-invitation ones.
41 ponies (8.1%) broken down into 22 Warden's and 19 Lossoth.
28 /toasts (5.5%)
The quests by each character varied from 3 to 25. Eight characters got both ponies, 16 got one pony, and 8 were shut out altogether. Those 8 included my main (who even had to buy the /toast!) and the highest-ranked characters on six other servers. 24 of the 32 characters ended up with a /toast emote.
So far as I can tell with this limited data the random number generator appears fair -- I attribute the shutouts on my mains to bad luck, based on hucklebarry's report that his mains didn't do any worse than his low-level alts.
Assuming my 8.1% pony drop rate is accurate, I think there's a 87.9% chance that you'll get at least one pony in 25 runs, which is to say that one character in seven would fail. Of the characters that ran it every day until they won a pony (i.e. up to 25 runs), three of 19 failed -- that's close enough to be consistent with one in seven.
Interesting how we're all reporting this slightly differently but it would seem that there is similarity between a lot of our findings
Working on the basis that there are 3 big prizes (emote, lossoth steed and dusk/warden steed).
I have 11 alts who did the envelope quest daily (no extra badges purchased and no exploits).
If an alt got 3/3 (ie the emote plus both kinds of steed) big prizes I stopped doing the quest on that alt.
3/3 big prizes on 4/11 alts (including my main and my lowbie vendor alt)
2/3 big prizes on 4/11 alts
1/3 big prizes on 3/11 alts
So each of my alts got at least one big prize
Alts that won the emote = 8/11
Alts that won the Lossoth steed = 6/11
Alts that won the dusk/warden steed = 9/11
All on Nimrodel server and usually at around 5am EST ie quiet time. There were some duplicates of prizes that could not be utilised but these obviously don't show in the above results.
I appear to have much worse results than average then. I had 3 of 7 shut out of horses. Of those 3 only one got the emote(5 times which was really frustrating). 2 got one horse, one of them got additional horse of the same kind. 2 of them got both horses, one which also got the emote as well.
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And, of course some characters have got the same horse twice, and I have had to delete the extra one. I don't know if I won emote twice, maybe that would stay in my inventory then so I could send it to one of my characters?
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