Thread: Do I need to put something INTO the lottery?

I just noticed that this lottery thing apparently isn't a "buy a chest and you get a random item" cash shop thing; still, do I have to put anything INTO the lottery? Or can I just select all the lotteries for my char since no matter how useless or rare the rewards are, you can't loose anything? I'm not seeing any hints on the lottery page, but we're talking about a game company here...

You do not have to put anything into it. It's completely free.

Entering the lottery costs nothing and winning a Lotto will in no way effect your chances of winning again on the same character/account.

I do notice I don't win if I haven't logged in for awhile... not that I win allot or anything good but my chances appear to be less when I take a break from the game and yet still hit the "enter lotto" button on this site.

Sounds like a cool lottery :-)

/me goes off clicking some checkboxes

Keep in mind that entering characters into the lottery will reduce the chance of your other characters winning anything in the same lottery.

So do you really want that Mount on your lvl 5 crafting alt, or do you want a better chance of getting it on your main?


Your overal chance of winning something might increase by entering with all possible characters, but it might not work out for you.

Originally Posted by Jarnos

Keep in mind that entering characters into the lottery will reduce the chance of your other characters winning anything in the same lottery.

So do you really want that Mount on your lvl 5 crafting alt, or do you want a better chance of getting it on your main?


Your overal chance of winning something might increase by entering with all possible characters, but it might not work out for you.

This isn't quite right. Because the lotteries are level banded, they are unique. Winning one on a level 5 character doesn't impact whether you can win or not on any other characters at other levels (or even really in that same level 5 range).

Each lottery has a level range. Say 10-15 and 16-30. If you win on a level 11 character in lottery A, you may still win on a level 14 as well. You can also win on a level 22 in lottery B that same day. It makes a lot more sense if you look at each "lottery" as a raffle and each character as a ticket. Each ticket has an equal chance to win, even if you have 5 characters you can enter in the 10-15 lottery. It's entirely possible you could win on all 5 (unlikely, but possible).

You can enter all characters on all worlds, but we do ask that if you really don't play a character, please don't enter it. Someone in that same level range might be trying to win something for a character they DO play.

Originally Posted by Sapience

You can enter all characters on all worlds, but we do ask that if you really don't play a character, please don't enter it. Someone in that same level range might be trying to win something for a character they DO play.

I actually deleted a couple of random characters I had on different servers for this reason. Easier than having to deselect them every time I entered lotteries.

While you are at it Sapience, I have a question about flash lotteries, it has been bothering me for a while.

I assume that you set a percentage of people that can win a lottery, so the more enter, the more win.

But what if a flash lottery is run at a time when most of us in Europe are asleep.

let's say 10 people enter into the lottery on Laurelin (I believe you said that the winning chance is per server, and not across all worlds?), but the percentage of winners is only 1%, does that then mean there is a good chance that no one wins? Or is there always a minimum amount of winners? I'm, just curious how it works because the chance of winning a flash lottery seems to be exceptionally low, even if you consider the small amount of people that enter them compared to the normal lotteries.

Originally Posted by Sapience

Each lottery has a level range. Say 10-15 and 16-30. If you win on a level 11 character in lottery A, you may still win on a level 14 as well. ... It makes a lot more sense if you look at each "lottery" as a raffle and each character as a ticket. Each ticket has an equal chance to win, even if you have 5 characters you can enter in the 10-15 lottery. It's entirely possible you could win on all 5 (unlikely, but possible).

Huh? I'm afraid this contradicts itself. A raffle has only one winner of a prize, the one that matches the drawn ticket. The more tickets entered, the lower the chance of a certain one being drawn. Yes, each ticket has an equal chance to win compared to each other, but if there are three tickets entered, a 33% chance to win, if there are five entered, a 20% for one of those to win, exclusive to others, even if there are multiple drawings, more entries reduces the chance of winning.

Does it work that way?

If so, the first example in the quote can't happen, as you could never have multiple characters in a level range win (unless the drawing was setup to draw multiple times--but even so the odds for each individual winning is reduced by more entrants). In this case, entering with characters you don't play would have a negative impact on others.

Or does it function more like a lottery (numbers game), where essentially each entrant has to match a random number, and the ones that do all get rewarded? (Essentially akin to critting when crafting, your crit success has no impact on another crafter.) In which case, additional entries to not reduce chances for success and entering on characters you don't play would not have any impact on others.

I do know some lotteries are set to reward everyone who enters. It also seems lower level characters win far more frequently than level cap characters, which would make sense if it were like a raffle and more entrants competed with each other.

(In my case, my level cap character has never won anything, despite entering nearly every lottery. My lower level characters have won several times, despite rarely entering--perhaps once every other month a lottery had something they could use. Obviously that's an anecdote though, not a large enough sampling to indicate much of anything.)



"Sometimes survival comes down to not being hit. Actually, most times." -the chicken skill, Bob and Weave

It's a raffle. Raffles don't need to have only one winner, and in LOTRO, they sure don't. X players enter, Y (X >> Y > 1) players win.

Originally Posted by RJFerret

If so, the first example in the quote can't happen, as you could never have multiple characters in a level range win (unless the drawing was setup to draw multiple times--but even so the odds for each individual winning is reduced by more entrants). In this case, entering with characters you don't play would have a negative impact on others.

I'd call it a multi-draw raffle without replacement (any character can only win once). You are correct that the odds of each entry are reduced by the number of entries, but consider the impact of a single additional entry to a set of say 300 (and often more - many more) in a drawing with say 3 winners. One more entry changes each player's odds of winning, from ((1/300)+(1/299)+(1/298)) to ((1/301)+(1/300)+(1/299)), or from 1.0034% to 1% - while a reduction, it is a very small reduction. Even if the raffle only had 100 entries and still had a 3-prize reward set, the odds per entrant would drop from 3.0305% to 3.0002%, or about a 1% reduction in the chance of a win by an individual character (.030305/.030002 = 0.99). Increasing the number of entries slightly reduces the impact of each additional entry; increasing the number of winners very slightly increases the impact of each additional entry.

So yes, removing your Level 12 character from an open Lottery will increase the chances of your Level 75 to win the Lottery, but the increase for the L75 will be very small, while the 'lost opportunity' for the L12 character will be absolute. For any item that is not character-bound (and most Lottery items are either unbound or subscription-bound ['account-bound' is a fiction for those of us with multiple subs under a common account - a bit of a sore spot with me, but that has become Turbine-standard language]), dropping a character is a losing proposition in the attempt to win the drawing overall. Even on a Lottery for a character-bound prize, the impact on your other characters is minimal.

Originally Posted by Artemis023

I do notice I don't win if I haven't logged in for awhile... not that I win allot or anything good but my chances appear to be less when I take a break from the game and yet still hit the "enter lotto" button on this site.

I also thought I saw a possible relation between degree of activity of a char and odds in the LOTRO lotto. All my 7 or so winnings have been so consistent with such a rule if it indeed existed. This makes it hard for me to put it aside as mere coincedence. But as statistics go, what you think you observe and what is truly happening can be totally different things!

After some thinking about it, I now rationally contribute my observations to the fact that my main is much higher level than my alt. This means my main will probably enter raffles with far less participants, thus increasing his odds to win. My alt enters raffles together with everyone else's lower lvl alts, making his winning odds a lot smaller. Based on what has been officially confirmed, this is a rather plausible explanation of my observations.

But really, come on guys: a few days ago I let my scholar alt make a few stacks of warding/battle scrolls. First time in weeks that my alt got some serious proper in-game time. And ka-boom, right away he wins the lotto for the first time in months! Makes you think eh? What are the odds that this is coincedence? oO :P