Thread: Information regarding Lottery Chances?

@Sapience:
I was wondering if it would be too much trouble to publish the probability for a character to win for each type of lottery (similar to any real lottery publishing the odds for the jackpot), like 0.00018% to win for each individual entry (each and any character to meet this gets the winnings). or if there is a limited amount of winning packages, for example only one character per server or one amongst all playerbase can win.

I am certain that would help estimating the odds better, as well as putting your own chances into relation, making an end to all speculation

I could see the lottery system stating how many of each prize package are available, but the odds are dependent on number of entries, not on possible entries...
I'm not a statistician.

For reference
1. Its more of a raffle than a TRUE lottery
2. There are winners on EVERY world for each lotto unless the lotto is only run on specific worlds. (rarely done.)
3. The system is blind, and does not know anything about the account, apart from the characters level and class when determining what it is eligible to enter.

Yeah I would like to see the information published, just want to know what my odds of winning were.

I'm just happy the lotteries are back.
I take a 'Dumb and Dumber' stance when it comes to the lotteries.
"So your saying there IS a chance!?"

there isn't any way to know your odds or chances of winning until the moment before the lottery winner is decided. While they may know how many prizes they are going to give out, they won't know how many people are going to enter each lottery until they've all entered. And the number of prizes they give out very likely changes depending on the type of lottery it is. Some lotteries- like special event ones- are going to have lots of winners. Others will have only a few.

I typically get entered into lotteries within a few minutes after they are posted. If they were to post odds of winning at that point, I should have nearly 100% odds of winning, or a very high percentage, because not many will have entered yet. Later on that night, after it's been open for 12 hours, my numbers may have dropped to 50%, or 25%, or even 2%, depending on how many other people entered after me. It will constantly change, and get lower, throughout the entry period. But people wouldn't accept that. They'd only see that first number then get mad and accuse Turbine of lying when they didn't win as often as those first numbers said they might.

In short, no, it's not possible to put up your odds of winning with any reliability, and I'm pretty confident they won't ever do it.

Originally Posted by Crell_1

For reference
1. Its more of a raffle than a TRUE lottery
2. There are winners on EVERY world for each lotto unless the lotto is only run on specific worlds. (rarely done.)
3. The system is blind, and does not know anything about the account, apart from the characters level and class when determining what it is eligible to enter.

Someone's been paying attention!

So, as Crell pointed out, Lotteries are really more like raffles. If you've ever entered a raffle or sweepstakes you've probably run across the little line in the rules that goes something like, "odds of winning are based on the total number of entries received". That's entirely true of lotteries. Each lottery has a fixed number of prizes that can be as low as 1 or as high as many thousands of winners per world.

The system is not only blind but has no memory. So those worrying that a win of a minor lottery means they'll be excluded from a 'good' one need not worry. The system doesn't remember you. It also doesn't check account status. Lotteries are open to all as long as you meet the requirements of the lotteries.

Which brings us to restrictions we can set on lotteries. We can set lotteries by class, level, level range, world, and race. So in theory we could create a lottery for Hobbit Burglars on Eldar that are level 19. If you didn't have a level 19 Hobbit Burglar on Eldar, you'd never see that lottery running.

We put limits on lotteries for obvious reasons. Do you really want to see several thousand Worn Symbols of Celebrimbor on the AH tomorrow? Probably not. That's why the more valuable/rare the item is the smaller the number of winners. The more common the items, the more winners. if it's pure fluff, we create lotteries that have huge numbers of winners and that should be almost impossible to not win one on at least one character.

As proof of how the odds are fluid; There was at least one lottery this past weekend that was set incredibly high. It should have been virtually impossible to lose. However, in looking at the logs and entries, we had one of the highest participation weekends ever in the lotteries. So the huge number of winners possible were overshadowed by the very large number of entries received.

Also, keep in mind that many items in the lotteries are bound. Especially the very best items. Entering those lotteries on character that you don't want, or can't use, the item on is a little counter productive and reduces the odds of winning for everyone else. Nothing is more frustrating then your level 12 storage alt winning a steed you really wanted on your level cap main but will never use on your storage alt. Except possibly knowing you lost it to someone who won it on their unused storage alt.

Or if you prefer the short version of all this, you'll find it in the Lottery FAQ.

Originally Posted by Sapience

Someone's been paying attention!
We can set lotteries by class, level, level range, world, and race.....

Nothing is more frustrating then your level 12 storage alt winning a steed you really wanted on your level cap main but will never use on your storage alt. Except possibly knowing you lost it to someone who won it on their unused storage alt.

Yes, I pay attention.; Details! Those are the key, after all.

Race.. Ok, that's a new one to me.

As for winning on unused characters, as long as its on my primary account, I'll enter them to me that says, Ok. this is my next character I'll play extensively.

Originally Posted by Sapience

Or if you prefer the short version of all this, you'll find it in the Lottery FAQ.

thanks for the friendly reminder