Thread: 7 lotteries, no wins= unusual?

I have now entered lotteries seven times with all my characters and I've won nothing. Is this to be expected or am I doing something wrong? A friend of mine seems to win every time!

Your friend is just lucky.

Originally Posted by fadespace

I have now entered lotteries seven times with all my characters and I've won nothing. Is this to be expected or am I doing something wrong? A friend of mine seems to win every time!

Not unusual. I've entered a fair number myself and never won anything except for last year's Anniversary debacle, where Turbine definitely upped everyone's win chance because of the poor festival execution.

We don't know how many people enter these things. Thousands, probably. It's called "chance." So you're just unlucky.

It's just luck, plus it depends what they are giving away. If they are giving away S4Ms or Sigils, the win rate is super low. If they are giving away Fireworks, everyone and his dog will win.

Thanks for the replies- I'll temper my excitement then

I have had 2 wins in past two weeks, that is with 64 characters in the lottery (actually more in last one, I had close to 100, since it had TPs so I entered with every server)

I have the same experience with Powerball. Lotteries are just a disguised tax on people that are bad at math.

Chance yes. I had zero win since 10/10 - which is strange given the frequency of lotteries and of previous wins =)
(mind that I have alts on many servers on same account, mainly for chat and earlier ventures into finding a nice server, 5 of these were on a server I actually play)

5/10 western lottery (test run I guess) 4xwin
5/10 level 5-15 lottery 5xwin
7/10 adventurer's lottery (level 41-50 lottery I think) 1xwin
7/10 welcome wagon lottery (also lowlvl) 2xwin
8/10 return of the lottery lottery 5xwin
9/10 9am return of the lottery lottery again 2xwin
9/10 7pm return of the lottery lottery 2xwin
10/10 return of the lottery lottery 2xwin

entered lottery every day since and no luck =)

Pity I had to win when there were no goodies for grabs AND when the silver component of the winnings were at a fraction of normal value, haha

Don't feel to bad! The past five or six I have entered have all resulted in a loss. We must be hated

Originally Posted by Ascus

I have had 2 wins in past two weeks, that is with 64 characters in the lottery (actually more in last one, I had close to 100, since it had TPs so I entered with every server)

Three letters for you: OCD

I've entered every lottery since it came back. I've won once, and it was pretty sad. The lottery was good once upon a time, then they realized people liked how it was paying out, the items won and they took it down. Turbine has a history of wonderful ideas, but the implementation of said ideas, is usually lacking.

*shrug*

I won a middle-earth travel pack! Yay!

Originally Posted by fadespace

I have now entered lotteries seven times with all my characters and I've won nothing. Is this to be expected or am I doing something wrong? A friend of mine seems to win every time!

Your friend got lucky. There is no way to improve your odds of winning. Much like a real lottery it's all a matter of luck. If it makes you feel any better, I've won about 5 lotteries since we first introduced them. Most of those were for fireworks.

Originally Posted by Macroscian

Chance yes. I had zero win since 10/10 - which is strange given the frequency of lotteries and of previous wins =)
(mind that I have alts on many servers on same account, mainly for chat and earlier ventures into finding a nice server, 5 of these were on a server I actually play)

5/10 western lottery (test run I guess) 4xwin
5/10 level 5-15 lottery 5xwin
7/10 adventurer's lottery (level 41-50 lottery I think) 1xwin
7/10 welcome wagon lottery (also lowlvl) 2xwin
8/10 return of the lottery lottery 5xwin
9/10 9am return of the lottery lottery again 2xwin
9/10 7pm return of the lottery lottery 2xwin
10/10 return of the lottery lottery 2xwin

entered lottery every day since and no luck =)

Pity I had to win when there were no goodies for grabs AND when the silver component of the winnings were at a fraction of normal value, haha

All the lotteries you listed had the number of winners set so high it was very hard to lose. The odds were you would win on at least one character, probably more. That was by design as part of our tests (trying to overwhelm the system with winners to guage performance). Now that they're back to a normal schedule and routine, the number of winners per lottery per world have been set to a more reasonable rate and prizes have been improved.

In fact, we added over 250 new items to the lottery yesterday including many that were requested in the "what would you put in the lottery" thread.

Originally Posted by Sapience

All the lotteries you listed had the number of winners set so high it was very hard to lose. The odds were you would win on at least one character, probably more. That was by design as part of our tests (trying to overwhelm the system with winners to guage performance). Now that they're back to a normal schedule and routine, the number of winners per lottery per world have been set to a more reasonable rate and prizes have been improved.

In fact, we added over 250 new items to the lottery yesterday including many that were requested in the "what would you put in the lottery" thread.

Good stuff! And I meant that: chance is as it's supposed to be =)

Originally Posted by Yaaraer

The lottery was good once upon a time, then they realized people liked how it was paying out, the items won and they took it down.

There are more prizes, higher valued prizes, previews of items that are coming to the store are often made available for free in the lottery first (win it before you can buy it, like the newly announced Horse emotes, Steed of Night, Steed of Minas Ithil, etc), there are more store items than ever before available in the lottery (including relic removal scrolls), and there are more winners per world now than ever before.

The only time the lottery has come down was for technical reasons or to address bugs.

Can I request a lottery where only female dwaves (or just dwarves if the rest of you really can't tell us apart!) can win? Prizes to include flowers, frilly dresses, nice hats etc?

Just if there were a female dwarves only lottery my chances of winning might be quite respectable

A lot of people haven't been able to enter lotteries for a while due to characters not updating here on the site, and for quite a few of us that was fixed just a couple of days back. I'm sure there are tons of relieved people entering everything all of a sudden, so that'll decrease your chances too.

I've won 3 lotteries in the last few weeks, but for most of that time was only able to enter on one character.

I gave a cursory examination of possibly related threads, so I do apologize if this question has been addressed elsewhere, but why, for the love of Pete's sake, is my lvl 15 guardian, who once served as my auction mule but has been deleted entirely from the server since well before the release of RoI (I'm thinking June-July as a rough estimate) still allowed to not only enter lotteries but also allowed to be lucky enough to win a Welcome Wagon for which I accidentally did not de-select him? Of course this was one of only 3 lottos I've won since the reinstatement of the lottos, one of the others being for fireworks and the other a Stalwart for my 62 guard who has been played for maybe two hours total since 2009, not counting her farming duties. I can at least partially understand character levels not updating, but this character has been non-existent for months, well before the reinstatement of lottos. I swear there is something hinky with this lottery process!

Originally Posted by Sapience

There are more prizes, higher valued prizes, previews of items that are coming to the store are often made available for free in the lottery first (win it before you can buy it, like the newly announced Horse emotes, Steed of Night, Steed of Minas Ithil, etc), there are more store items than ever before available in the lottery (including relic removal scrolls), and there are more winners per world now than ever before.

The only time the lottery has come down was for technical reasons or to address bugs.

Indeed that was the reason given, ironically it was very popular and so where the results, and that was deemed "broken", now people complain about never winning and it's working as intended. The items won are imaginary, the benefit is from having something nice happen more often. But as with all mmo's it seems if only a very select few have certain items and enjoy the game to it's fullest, then all is working well and as intended.

I used to win the lotteries all the time. Like at least 2 or 3 a week, I would have a character when something. But now, I have not win a single time since they came back up. I'm kinda sad, and almost ready to give up. Almost.

Well, since the lotteries started back up I have won nothing - not even a lump of coal, until yesterday (11/21) (I thought). After dinner I checked the Lottery page for my account (was entered into the weekend Lottery of the Devout). The page indicated a new Lottery for the Devout to enter and below that it stated "Congratulations! You have won the lottery...yada, yada, yada, winnings will be sent in-game mail...". I entered the new lottery, closed down the Bullroarer client and fired up the regular game client. Logged into my character and no mail. I double checked all the Bullroarer characters in case, but nothing.

Needless to say, disappointed. Too bad there is no support for any of this to at least check on the Landroval winners for the weekend lottery.

24 wins since lotteries reinstated. Undoubtedly the roi release increased player numbers meaning larger number of people competing for fewer prizes.

Originally Posted by Idiotvillage

24 wins since lotteries reinstated. Undoubtedly the roi release increased player numbers meaning larger number of people competing for fewer prizes.

30+ wins since the lottos came back up. A lot of them have been fluff, but I've won Lottery of the Free Peoples on 4 different characters in the last 12 days. The lotteries aren't broken. The RNG can just be very cruel sometimes. I remember dry spells lasting 2 months sometimes, during the previous lottery run.

Originally Posted by Raymore

Well, since the lotteries started back up I have won nothing - not even a lump of coal, until yesterday (11/21) (I thought). After dinner I checked the Lottery page for my account (was entered into the weekend Lottery of the Devout). The page indicated a new Lottery for the Devout to enter and below that it stated "Congratulations! You have won the lottery...yada, yada, yada, winnings will be sent in-game mail...". I entered the new lottery, closed down the Bullroarer client and fired up the regular game client. Logged into my character and no mail. I double checked all the Bullroarer characters in case, but nothing.

Needless to say, disappointed. Too bad there is no support for any of this to at least check on the Landroval winners for the weekend lottery.

The same thing happened to me as well. I had a text on the Lottery page telling me I won the Lottery of the Devout, but in-game there has been nothing. I am on Windfola.

Originally Posted by Ayrolen

30+ wins since the lottos came back up. A lot of them have been fluff, but I've won Lottery of the Free Peoples on 4 different characters in the last 12 days. The lotteries aren't broken. The RNG can just be very cruel sometimes. I remember dry spells lasting 2 months sometimes, during the previous lottery run.

sooooo..this is why I haven't won any lotteries lately =O you're winning them all.

I had one toon win the same lottery 3x in a a row. It is just the luck of the RNG.

im so unlucky in lotteries too
my friend entered 7 and won 3 so far
i entered so far at least 20 and won non.

Frankly, I don't know why people are complaining. It's not like you have to pay for your entries. The odds of winning are totally random and if you don't win, you have lost nothing except perhaps 2 minutes to enter.

just keep trying kind of like they say about real life lottery if you don't enter you can't win and it only costs a little bit of your time to enter Good luck to you hopefully you break your unlucky streak soon

This isnt a complaint, as the lottery wins are essentially freebies and no wins should be taken for granted.

However, with 9 alts having been entered into every available lottery since the restart, I had a fairly decent win record up until 11/11 when I had one winning alt for the first time in over a week. Since then I've not had a a single win on any alt.

With 9 alts entered into absolutely everything (including the steed lotteries which i know had a shockingly small chance of winning and therefore not surprised that I didn't win even one mount), I'm now starting to get the impression that things are more than a little bugged following on from all of the Autumn Festival spam lotteries.

9 (alts) x 7 (main lotteries since 11/11) = 63 lottery entries (excl. any other lotteries)

If you include the draw on 11/11, thats one win in 72 entries. I find it to believe that it's nearing double the odds of winning a fiver on Euromillions draw (1 in 46 - source wiki)

With 5 alts up for the Devout lotteries, it is a bit depressing to continually see nothing happen when even one freeby win can make a hell of a difference to what you spend your grind time on. Is there any chance that an error has been made when the Festival finished?

10 wins from 11/11 to 11/27
33 wins from 10/26 to 11/10
But I am pretty sure, it is the increased number of players now using the lottery. In October the lottery has not been known by many people on Vanyar (German server). Nowadays nearly all players are playing lottery.

I've hit an unlucky streak as well recently, no wins since the 13th.

But a couple of friends have had great luck lately and plenty of wins.

Just the RNG doing its job. Nobody ever posts threads questioning whether it's broken when their character wins 3 in a row, we only notice when things are going badly.

The increased numbers playing are probably the real reason, as you say. It does then beg the question: are the number of prizes per server too low now, given what sounds like a huge increase in player participation?

Also, are prizes per server now worked out by total active accounts entering, or by total alts entering as the two options would give wildly different odds?

There must be on average a couple more alts per account going back only as recently as mirkwood or lorien, so if the odds calculations have not changed in even that short time span, then sums would be inadequate. Just a thought.

Given the previous - and in some cases - ongoing database issues, it does kinda feel like the lottery module needs to be built from scratch though. As a senior webby, I do know that a normal client (and 2 continents worth of users doesn't exactly fall into that bracket) would go balistic given some of the stuff that goes on with this site