Thread: Yeah, I'm an alt-oholic but...

I vaguely recall a post on the Log-in screen that said the standard lottos would be boosted in wins. As near as I can tell this is not the case. Admittedly I am a horrible alt-oholic with 51 toons on three accounts on three servers (levels 65 down to 8)nbut I average ONE winner for all those toons for the standard lottos. I averaged just over 2 wins with 40 tunes on two accounts on three servers prior to the ending of the Lotto for the F2P setup. Since the return of the Lotto in December, the standard three times a week Lottos have been doing about half that. Has anyone else noted this?

Even if they doubled the amount of winners, you have to take into account that there are probably 4x as many entrants now. (Or possibly more, given how heavily the lotteries have been promoted.)

It is not possible to make reliable statistical inferences based on your observations so far. Assuming you enter 17 characters in each of 3 lotteries, you'd need to enter each of them in nearly 500 lotteries (more than 3 years' worth) before you could estimate the odds of winning within +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.

You could estimate a much wider range of odds with lower confidence with fewer observations. But with only 51 entries, a wider range of odds wouldn't be statistically significant for you personally.

Good Point!

For a while it seemed I won on one or two characters per standard lottery, sometimes as high a 10. In the past 4 weeks I have one 3 total. I enter 4 accounts worth (about 60 characters) per entry.

It seems the winning percentage has drastically dropped. For a F2P with 2 or 3 characters, I don't see this a worth the time to go to the web page to sign up.

On the other hand the flash lotteries, I usually am winning on a good number of my toons.

I have got to say that with the more players I would expect the winning to go down some. I am not a statistician, but my gut feeling is the overall number of winners is down significantly. Very few in my kin are doing the "sweet, look what I won" in kin chat anymore.

I will probably continue to enter the lottery of the stalwart when I think of it, but it really is hardly worth the time it takes to bother entering based on how often I am winning these days.

Yep
it is definitely harder to win now.

Previous lottery times of old, we were furnishing our kinship with food, and Athelas and Celebrant just from lotteries hehe. Not to mention Mithril Flakes for crafting and so on.

Times have changed I guess.

OP has a serious altohol problem

Personally, I think the lotteries feel more "rewarding" when I win them less frequently. I wouldn't get as excited about a win if I was sure I'd win one or two a week.

I'm sure Turbine also has to take into account the amount of "free" currency, consumables, items, and ingredients they're injecting into the server economies. While it's fun at an individual level, at some point it could lead to statistically significant market changes at a server level. I'm sure they take care to stay well below these thresholds.

Originally Posted by Fredelas

Personally, I think the lotteries feel more "rewarding" when I win them less frequently. I wouldn't get as excited about a win if I was sure I'd win one or two a week.

I'm sure Turbine also has to take into account the amount of "free" currency, consumables, items, and ingredients they're injecting into the server economies. While it's fun at an individual level, at some point it could lead to statistically significant market changes at a server level. I'm sure they take care to stay well below these thresholds.

The concern is that the players with 2-3 characters will win only once every 100 lotteries, if the the players with 50-60 characters are winning only once a couple weeks. Not really worth going to the page to register.

Originally Posted by Ascus2

The concern is that the players with 2-3 characters will win only once every 100 lotteries, if the the players with 50-60 characters are winning only once a couple weeks. Not really worth going to the page to register.

Hmm that's a rather bizarre cost-benefit analysis...

It takes what, a whole 2 minutes to log in, enter, and log out (well, I guess that depends on your internet connections to load each screen... ). It's not like it's actually costing you anything to enter them...