Thread: Has any one else seen a dramatic drop off on the smelting crit rate?

Hi,

I've been noticing over the past couple of weeks that my crit rate when smelting has appeared to be declining. When F2P came out making a 100 bars would get me 5 to 6 crits which is within reason for a 5% crit rate. About two weeks ago or so it dropped off to about 2 to 3 crits which is irritating but within reason. In the last few days it's dropped to 1 to 2 crits which is getting low and really irritating, but tonight was the clincher. I made 37 barrow iron bars and 107 rich iron bars all one sitting and got ZERO crits. Sorry but this is way outside a 5% crit rate. Has anyone else noticed this trend?

Brodormur
Lvl 34 Champion
Windfola

Originally Posted by Brodormur

Hi,

I've been noticing over the past couple of weeks that my crit rate when smelting has appeared to be declining. When F2P came out making a 100 bars would get me 5 to 6 crits which is within reason for a 5% crit rate. About two weeks ago or so it dropped off to about 2 to 3 crits which is irritating but within reason. In the last few days it's dropped to 1 to 2 crits which is getting low and really irritating, but tonight was the clincher. I made 37 barrow iron bars and 107 rich iron bars all one sitting and got ZERO crits. Sorry but this is way outside a 5% crit rate. Has anyone else noticed this trend?

Brodormur
Lvl 34 Champion
Windfola

Sample size too small; please collect 10000 data-points and average results.

In other words, this is an example of a perceptual error. Not every run of crafting will net precisely the same rate of criticals, but over a large number of runs, your percentage should be accurate. For all you know, the next big run you do may net you 10-15% criticals, evening out the 'low' percentages you've seen recently.

For what it's worth, I've been getting critical results in crafting at around the normal levels. Again, not every run comes out the same (how boring would that be?), but the average seems about right. Heck, I crafted a bunch of necklaces earlier today and got 5 normal, 3 crit (in precisely that order) for the first 8 on a 51% chance (Bronze tools + crit item added). Wound up with 5 crit out of 14... which seems low, but other times I've gotten 3 of 4 critical on the same percentage.

Statistics really only works over a large enough sample size - a couple of hundred is too small, streaks can occur which make it seem like there's something wrong. You need thousands of data points to be reasonably certain there's a problem.

Honestly, no, it's been fine and I've done a fair bit of smelting. I don't record numbers but I certainly got crits.

This is a common misunderstanding what 5% means. 5% does not mean do something 20 times and get one win - 19 --> you lose. What it means is do something 10,000 times, you will get 500 wins and 9,500 sucka. If the random generator is working right it going to do things like - 100 failures in a row. Some one else will get 3 wins and two losses.

People will always notice the 100 failures and get very mad. You get the 3-2. People go nice. Wander off. Never consider someone had to fund that 3-2 by getting 100 failures in a row.

My crit rate is has always been low. The worst case was when I had a 70% chance of a crit.... Took me 30 attempts to get it.... My success rate is usually about one quarter of the predicted success rate. On dice rolls in fellowships, I win about 1 in 30 instead of 1 in 6. Only twice in my entire time of playing Lotro have I got up to the average succes rate. Another example was when I joined another player in doing a quest which involved randomly dropped resources. He finished the quest in about 15mins, I took about 2 hours. He said I should put a ticket in as there must be a bug.

Looking for cracked sigils... I searched for 6 weeks without finding a single cracked sigil, amassing a total of 600 ingots in that time. That cannot be normal. Some people were claiming they had found 40. I have found about 3, the rest I have had to buy.

There should be an analysis done on the distribution of random results in this game. The game is almost unplayable with the succes rates I am consistently getting.

What do others think?

Since this issue is not identical with the original issue discussed in this rather ancient thread, please open a new thread to address your problem. Thank you.