Thread: How many for a set of critical successes?

Given a percentage chance of a critical success, what is a reasonable number of tries to obtain a set of 5 critical success armour pieces?

For example, if critical chance is 50%, I understand that 5 tries in a row yields only 3% chance that all will succeed. (0.5^5 = 0.03125)

I think it takes about 8 or 9 tries to reach a probability of about 85% for a complete set, but I can't recall the statistical math for additional tries.

Depends on the tier of armour. I find that if I'm doing a lower tier, like Artisan, then it'll take maybe 5 or 6 tries only to make the 5 pieces. But if I'm trying Master or up, it could take me 7 or 8 or more.

Anyway thats not based on any kind of statistical fact. Just on my perception heh. Me no math good .

Thanks for the quick reply.

I do believe the base chance for a critical success (and the higher chance with a critical ingredient) are higher for lower-tier recipes.

Originally Posted by Duncan_Feldane

Thanks for the quick reply.

I do believe the base chance for a critical success (and the higher chance with a critical ingredient) are higher for lower-tier recipes.

That would make sense, much like how crit chance is increased against underlevel mobs. But then again there are times when it takes 3 hits to kill that level 11 goblin .

Tricksy goblins.

Originally Posted by Duncan_Feldane

snip

For example, if critical chance is 50%, I understand that 5 tries in a row yields only 3% chance that all will succeed. (0.5^5 = 0.03125)

snip

but I can't recall the statistical math for additional tries.

No, and no. Forget statistics for any thing related to crafting chances in LOTR. That thinking leads only to frustration for almost anyone who goes by it.

If you have a 50% chance to crit on a SINGLE try, you have 50% chance to crit EACH try if you tried that 100 times. And that's true whether you're doing a T1 or T6 recipe.

It TOTALLY depends on if the "crit fairy" (the RNG) is rolling in your favor or not.

I have had lowbie toons using level appropriate tools and scrolls crit a whole suit in one go, and my SM Kindred Goddess of Tailoring using the best of the best fail and on every other item...

It is one of the MOST aggravating things about crafting in this game... I have asked and asked and suggested and suggested that if our base crit chance is 5%, have that go up 1% point for each tier we have mastered, so that by the time you are SM, you have a BASE of 11% + master items + tools + scrolls.

Originally Posted by JeanCarlo

If you have a 50% chance to crit on a SINGLE try, you have 50% chance to crit EACH try if you tried that 100 times. And that's true whether you're doing a T1 or T6 recipe.

I understand that. But if you try the same recipe twice, the chance of obtaining a single crit out of those two tries is 75%. Of two tries, there are four possible results (yes/yes, yes/no, no/yes, no/no). Three of those four possible results contain at least one yes, which is 75%.

Did some searching, and I think this is a binomial distribution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

So at a probability of 50% for each try, I think at 9 tries, you have a 50% chance to obtain a set of 5 critical successes.

Both JeanCarlo and Linwe-Elfmaiden, I know the frustration.

Originally Posted by Duncan_Feldane

I understand that. But if you try the same recipe twice, the chance of obtaining a single crit out of those two tries is 75%. Of two tries, there are four possible results (yes/yes, yes/no, no/yes, no/no). Three of those four possible results contain at least one yes, which is 75%.

Did some searching, and I think this is a binomial distribution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

So at a probability of 50% for each try, I think at 9 tries, you have a 50% chance to obtain a set of 5 critical successes.

Both JeanCarlo and Linwe-Elfmaiden, I know the frustration.

I'm not questioning the math; just advising to avoid that mind set - especially when you're not Actually (as opposed to Theoretically) dealing with massive quantities of "tries", because the results can really be frustrating if and when the "math" doesn't pan out.

When you're doing a Lot of "tries" you will see the % shown coming out. Here's a post I made earlier this month when 1 crafting batch equaled almost 1000 "tries".

Originally Posted by JeanCarlo

For what it's worth to the OP, I just finished a batch of (wait for it... ) 618 batches of "Jar of Mint Sauce". Total outcome, using +20% crit tool and the basic 5% crit chance, was around 946 units.

946 - 618 = 328 / 2 (crit result gives 3 instead of normal 1) = 164 / 618 craftings = 26.54%

When I turned those 946 Jars into racks of Lamb, I came away with about 240 crit results, or about (240/946) 25.37%.

On the other hand, when my Tailor crafted some L56 gears using a crit item but a 18% crit tool (total 70%?), I got 100% success on all 6 craftings with Zero failures.

Originally Posted by Linwe-Elfmaiden

I have asked and asked and suggested and suggested that if our base crit chance is 5%, have that go up 1% point for each tier we have mastered, so that by the time you are SM, you have a BASE of 11% + master items + tools + scrolls.

That right there is probably THE best suggestion I have seen for this games crafting system, so much so i'd vote for this idea in a presidential election if I wasn't british (but we could use it as Prime Minister i suppose)